Watanga 10–6 Small Town: Result & Stats

Watanga

FT

10 – 6

Small Town

5/30/2021

LFA First Division · Round 22Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Watanga69%

×Draw17%

Small Town14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatangaExpected goals in this matchSmall Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.03

Watanga

2.48

Small Town

1.03

Watanga creates 141% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 11 away

1.95

creates per match

1.09

0.97

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Watanga

1.95

Small Town

1.09

allows per match

Watanga

0.97

Small Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par

Small Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Small Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Watanga or draw

86%

Watanga or Small Town

83%

Draw or Small Town

31%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+

46%

Small Town wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals

92%

Watanga 2+ goals

70%

Watanga 3+ goals

44%

Small Town 1+ goals

64%

Small Town 2+ goals

28%

Small Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)

83%

Small Town (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Small Town away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Small Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Small Town attack 1.09 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Watanga scores more

69%

level

17%

Small Town scores more

14%

Watanga at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff