Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Watanga vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
1 – 1
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
4/11/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17Blue Field Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Watanga64%
×Draw20%
NPA Anchors15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
2.08
NPA Anchors
0.90

Watanga creates 131% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 24 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
85%
Watanga or NPA Anchors
80%
Draw or NPA Anchors
36%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
40%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
87%
Watanga 2+ goals
61%
Watanga 3+ goals
34%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
59%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
23%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
81%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Watanga scores more
64%
level
20%
NPA Anchors scores more
15%

Watanga at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs NPA Anchors

Watanga and NPA Anchors drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Blue Field Sports Ground in Monrovia.