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Watanga vs Muscat — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
4 – 0
Muscat
Muscat
4/22/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 26Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Watanga54%
×Draw23%
Muscat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
1.82
Muscat
1.10

Watanga creates 65% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Muscat
1.23

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Muscat
1.69

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Muscat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
77%
Watanga or Muscat
77%
Draw or Muscat
46%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
31%
Muscat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
84%
Watanga 2+ goals
54%
Watanga 3+ goals
27%
Muscat 1+ goals
67%
Muscat 2+ goals
30%
Muscat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
70%
Muscat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Muscat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Muscat defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Muscat attack 1.23 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Watanga scores more
54%
level
23%
Muscat scores more
23%

Watanga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs Muscat

Watanga beat Muscat 4-0 in LFA First Division on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.