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Watanga vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
0 – 0
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
3/12/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 20Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Watanga48%
×Draw24%
Mighty Barrolle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
1.68
Mighty Barrolle
1.23

Watanga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
72%
Watanga or Mighty Barrolle
76%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
52%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
25%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
81%
Watanga 2+ goals
50%
Watanga 3+ goals
24%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
71%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
35%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
63%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Watanga scores more
48%
level
24%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
28%

Watanga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Watanga 0–0 Mighty Barrolle

Watanga and Mighty Barrolle drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.