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Watanga vs Kallon Liberia — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Kallon Liberia
Kallon Liberia
2/17/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Watanga58%
×Draw21%
Kallon Liberia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
2.09
Kallon Liberia
1.17

Watanga creates 79% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Kallon Liberia
1.38

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Kallon Liberia
2.23

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Kallon Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
79%
Watanga or Kallon Liberia
79%
Draw or Kallon Liberia
42%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
35%
Kallon Liberia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
88%
Watanga 2+ goals
62%
Watanga 3+ goals
34%
Kallon Liberia 1+ goals
69%
Kallon Liberia 2+ goals
33%
Kallon Liberia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
74%
Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Kallon Liberia away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kallon Liberia attack 1.38 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Watanga scores more
58%
level
21%
Kallon Liberia scores more
21%

Watanga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs Kallon Liberia

Watanga beat Kallon Liberia 4-1 in LFA First Division on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.