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Watanga vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
12/11/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 2Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Watanga59%
×Draw23%
Invincible Eleven19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
1.85
Invincible Eleven
0.94

Watanga creates 97% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
81%
Watanga or Invincible Eleven
77%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
41%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
34%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
84%
Watanga 2+ goals
55%
Watanga 3+ goals
28%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
61%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
24%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
76%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Watanga scores more
59%
level
23%
Invincible Eleven scores more
19%

Watanga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs Invincible Eleven

Watanga and Invincible Eleven drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.