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Watanga vs Global Pharma — LFA First Division 2020

Watanga
Watanga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Global Pharma
Global Pharma
9/10/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Watanga57%
×Draw23%
Global Pharma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watanga
1.80
Global Pharma
0.95

Watanga creates 89% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 26 away

creates per match

Watanga
1.95
Global Pharma
0.92

allows per match

Watanga
0.97
Global Pharma
1.65

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par
Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Global Pharma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Watanga or draw
80%
Watanga or Global Pharma
77%
Draw or Global Pharma
43%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+
33%
Global Pharma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals
83%
Watanga 2+ goals
54%
Watanga 3+ goals
27%
Global Pharma 1+ goals
61%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
25%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)
74%
Global Pharma (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Watanga scores more
57%
level
23%
Global Pharma scores more
20%

Watanga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watanga vs Global Pharma

Watanga beat Global Pharma 2-0 in LFA First Division on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.