Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wasilków vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wasilków
Wasilków
FT
0 – 2
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski w Wasilkowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wasilków27%
×Draw22%
Ursus Warszawa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wasilków
1.33
Ursus Warszawa
1.92

Ursus Warszawa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wasilków
1.00
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Wasilków
2.45
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Wasilków+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wasilków ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wasilków or draw
49%
Wasilków or Ursus Warszawa
78%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
73%

Winning margin

Wasilków wins by 2+
11%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wasilków 1+ goals
74%
Wasilków 2+ goals
38%
Wasilków 3+ goals
15%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
85%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
57%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Wasilków (draw refunded)
34%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wasilków at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wasilków attack 1.00 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Wasilków defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wasilków scores more
27%
level
22%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
51%

Ursus Warszawa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wasilków 0–2 Ursus Warszawa

Ursus Warszawa beat Wasilków 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wasilkowie in Wasilków.