Wasilków 1–8 Sokół Aleksandrów: Result & Stats

Wasilków

FT

1 – 8

Sokół Aleksandrów

10/17/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Miejski w Wasilkowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wasilków29%

×Draw23%

Sokół Aleksandrów48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WasilkówExpected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.79

Wasilków

1.35

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.79

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

2.45

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Wasilków

1.00

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Wasilków

2.45

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wasilków+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wasilków ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wasilków or draw

52%

Wasilków or Sokół Aleksandrów

77%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

71%

Winning margin

Wasilków wins by 2+

13%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wasilków 1+ goals

74%

Wasilków 2+ goals

39%

Wasilków 3+ goals

15%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

83%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

53%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Wasilków (draw refunded)

38%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wasilków at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wasilków attack 1.00 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Wasilków defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wasilków scores more

29%

level

23%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

48%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff