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Wasilków vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wasilków
Wasilków
FT
1 – 6
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Miejski w Wasilkowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wasilków26%
×Draw22%
Błonianka Błonie51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wasilków
1.31
Błonianka Błonie
1.91

Błonianka Błonie creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wasilków
1.00
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Wasilków
2.45
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Wasilków+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wasilków ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wasilków or draw
49%
Wasilków or Błonianka Błonie
78%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
74%

Winning margin

Wasilków wins by 2+
11%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wasilków 1+ goals
73%
Wasilków 2+ goals
38%
Wasilków 3+ goals
14%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
85%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
57%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Wasilków (draw refunded)
34%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wasilków at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wasilków attack 1.00 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Wasilków defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wasilków scores more
26%
level
22%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
51%

Błonianka Błonie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wasilków 1–6 Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Wasilków 6-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wasilkowie in Wasilków.