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Tacuarembo vs Plaza Colonia — Segunda División 2011

Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
FT
1 – 1
Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
11/26/2011Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tacuarembo43%
×Draw30%
Plaza Colonia27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuarembo
1.19
Plaza Colonia
0.89

Tacuarembo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tacuarembo
1.38
Plaza Colonia
1.00

allows per match

Tacuarembo
0.77
Plaza Colonia
1.00

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par
Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

Plaza Colonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw
73%
Tacuarembo or Plaza Colonia
70%
Draw or Plaza Colonia
57%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+
19%
Plaza Colonia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals
70%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
33%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
12%
Plaza Colonia 1+ goals
59%
Plaza Colonia 2+ goals
22%
Plaza Colonia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
61%
Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Plaza Colonia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.38 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Plaza Colonia attack 1.00 + Tacuarembo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tacuarembo scores more
43%
level
30%
Plaza Colonia scores more
27%

Tacuarembo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Tacuarembo 1–1 Plaza Colonia

Tacuarembo and Plaza Colonia drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 26, 2011.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola.