Plaza Colonia 2–0 Tacuarembo: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tacuarembo

J. Mascia 90+2'

A. Miranda 10'

3/10/2018

Segunda División · Round 2Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Plaza Colonia53%

×Draw27%

Tacuarembo20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchTacuarembo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.79

Plaza Colonia

1.46

Tacuarembo

0.79

Plaza Colonia creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.42

Tacuarembo

0.90

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

0.67

Tacuarembo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Tacuarembo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

80%

Plaza Colonia or Tacuarembo

73%

Draw or Tacuarembo

47%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

27%

Tacuarembo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

77%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

43%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

18%

Tacuarembo 1+ goals

55%

Tacuarembo 2+ goals

19%

Tacuarembo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

72%

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.42 + Tacuarembo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tacuarembo attack 0.90 + Plaza Colonia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

53%

level

27%

Tacuarembo scores more

20%

Plaza Colonia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Miranda

46'

Á. Aschieri← R. Dorrego

46'

Douglas Jardel← P. Borches

46'

J. Ramírez← B. Ferreira

63'

G. Rocaniere← J. Fernández

70'

S. Charamoni← L. Olavarría

79'

J. Mascia← A. Miranda

90+2'

J. Mascia

Plaza

Tacuarembo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Szlafmyc

46'▲Á. Aschieri←▼R. Dorrego

63'▲G. Rocaniere←▼J. Fernández

79'▲J. Mascia←▼A. Miranda

Plaza Colonia substitutes

AschieriRocaniereMasciaIrsanskasMenéndezSequeyraTorres

Manager: A. Abascal

46'▲Douglas Jardel←▼P. Borches

46'▲J. Ramírez←▼B. Ferreira

70'▲S. Charamoni←▼L. Olavarría

Tacuarembo substitutes

JardelRamírezCharamoniRodríguezSamurioGuzmánSantos