Kitakyushu 2–2 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Kitakyushu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

T. Ikemoto 90+2'

Rodrigo Paraná 90'

E. Shirai 64'

R. Frank 62'

11/12/2016

J2 League · Round 41Honjō Athletic Stadium (Kitakyushu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kitakyushu34%

×Draw27%

Mito Hollyhock38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitakyushuExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.27

Kitakyushu

1.19

Mito Hollyhock

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 169 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kitakyushu

1.11

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Kitakyushu

1.33

Mito Hollyhock

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitakyushu ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kitakyushu or draw

62%

Kitakyushu or Mito Hollyhock

73%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

66%

Winning margin

Kitakyushu wins by 2+

14%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kitakyushu 1+ goals

70%

Kitakyushu 2+ goals

33%

Kitakyushu 3+ goals

12%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

72%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

36%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kitakyushu (draw refunded)

47%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitakyushu at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.27 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitakyushu attack 1.11 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Kitakyushu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kitakyushu scores more

34%

level

27%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

38%

Mito Hollyhock at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

R. Frank

63'

E. Shirai← Y. Yamamura

64'

K. Kotegawa← M. Motoyama

64'

E. Shirai

72'

Rodrigo Paraná← S. Inoue

72'

M. Ito← Y. Yuzawa

82'

T. Ikemoto← J. Arai

86'

Y. Kubo← S. Hiramatsu

90'

Rodrigo Paraná

90+2'

T. Ikemoto