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Washington Spirit W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
3/26/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 2Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Washington Spirit W45%
×Draw26%
Seattle Reign FC W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Washington Spirit W
1.46
Seattle Reign FC W
1.13

Washington Spirit W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Washington Spirit W
1.56
Seattle Reign FC W
1.12

allows per match

Washington Spirit W
1.13
Seattle Reign FC W
1.35

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw
71%
Washington Spirit W or Seattle Reign FC W
74%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
55%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
22%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
77%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
43%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
18%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
68%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
31%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
60%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.12 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more
45%
level
26%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
29%

Washington Spirit W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Washington Spirit W 1–0 Seattle Reign FC W

Washington Spirit W beat Seattle Reign FC W 1-0 in NWSL Women on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Audi Field in Washington, District of Columbia.