Seattle Reign FC W 1–2 Washington Spirit W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Washington Spirit W

S. Holmes 17'

A. Hatch 35'

C. Bethune 11'

5/24/2025

NWSL Women · Round 10Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W32%

×Draw30%

Washington Spirit W38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchWashington Spirit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.13

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

Washington Spirit W

1.13

Washington Spirit W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.08

creates per match

1.33

0.92

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.08

Washington Spirit W

1.33

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.92

Washington Spirit W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Washington Spirit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

62%

Seattle Reign FC W or Washington Spirit W

70%

Draw or Washington Spirit W

68%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

12%

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

63%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

26%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

8%

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

68%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

31%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

45%

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Washington Spirit W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Washington Spirit W attack 1.33 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

32%

level

30%

Washington Spirit W scores more

38%

Washington Spirit W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Bernal

Washington Spirit W · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

Gift MondayGoal cancelled

11'

C. Bethune↳ C. Krueger

17'

35'

50'

55'

61'

J. Fishlock← E. Adames

62'

L. Biyendolo← J. Huitema

66'

H. Hershfelt← C. Bethune

66'

K. Sylla← E. Morgan

74'

Ji So-Yun← A. James-Turner

74'

N. Mondesir← S. Holmes

81'

M. Morris← G. Monday

81'

K. Dulaney← C. Krueger

89'

S. Menti← M. G. Dahlien

89'

B. Ratcliffe← R. Kouassi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleWashington

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots17

3Corners3

6Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots17

2On Target4

0Off Target6

5Blocked7

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

376Total Passes415

272Accurate Passes309

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1