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Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2026

Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
Preview
20:00
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
8/2/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageAudi Field
Big match
39%
Washington Spirit W
model favours
39%27%34%

Washington Spirit W score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Washington Spirit W39%
×Draw27%
San Diego Wave W34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Washington Spirit W
1.31
San Diego Wave W
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

creates per match

Washington Spirit W
1.56
San Diego Wave W
1.28

allows per match

Washington Spirit W
1.13
San Diego Wave W
1.07

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw
66%
Washington Spirit W or San Diego Wave W
73%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
61%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
18%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
73%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
38%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
14%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
70%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
34%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
53%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more
39%
level
27%
San Diego Wave W scores more
34%

Washington Spirit W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings
  • Washington Spirit W outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Washington Spirit W
Defensively solid
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
53%Possession56%
79%Pass accuracy81%
12.9ShotsBiggest gap10.7
1.32xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Washington Spirit WSan Diego Wave W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Washington Spirit W
4
Draws
2
San Diego Wave W
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 89%
1–22–10–01–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWWL
W
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Washington Spirit W host San Diego Wave W

August 2, 2026: Washington Spirit W take on San Diego Wave W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Washington Spirit W host San Diego Wave W at Audi Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.