Washington Spirit W 1–1 San Diego Wave W

Washington Spirit W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Diego Wave W

C. Bethune 90+6'

J. Shaw 20'

6/15/2024

NWSL Women · Round 10Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Washington Spirit W43%

×Draw24%

San Diego Wave W32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.33

Washington Spirit W

1.59

San Diego Wave W

1.33

Washington Spirit W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.88

creates per match

1.46

1.20

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.88

San Diego Wave W

1.46

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.20

San Diego Wave W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

68%

Washington Spirit W or San Diego Wave W

76%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

57%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

22%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

80%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

47%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

21%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

74%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

38%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

58%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.88 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

San Diego Wave W attack 1.46 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

43%

level

24%

San Diego Wave W scores more

32%

Washington Spirit W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Sheridan

San Diego Wave W · G

8.5

Match Events

20'

21'

45'

46'

48'

57'

Abby DahlkemperPenalty cancelled

64'

M. Doniak← S. Jakobsson

66'

Alex Morgan

78'

B. Ratcliffe← O. Sarr

78'

E. van Egmond← J. Shaw

78'

K. Carusa← M. Sánchez

82'

86'

87'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonSan

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots7

7Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots7

8On Target3

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

13Inside Box7

4Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

358Total Passes393

274Accurate Passes294

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W

Washington Spirit W and San Diego Wave W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on June 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Shaw (20'), C. Bethune (90+6').

San Diego Wave W controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 17.

The match was played at Audi Field in Washington, District of Columbia.

Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs San Diego Wave W