Washington Spirit W 0–1 North Carolina Courage W

Washington Spirit W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

North Carolina Courage W

A. Sanchez 19'

6/29/2024

NWSL Women · Round 11Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Washington Spirit W42%

×Draw26%

North Carolina Courage W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.24

Washington Spirit W

1.47

North Carolina Courage W

1.24

Washington Spirit W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

1.56

creates per match

1.33

1.15

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.56

North Carolina Courage W

1.33

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.15

North Carolina Courage W

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

68%

Washington Spirit W or North Carolina Courage W

74%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

58%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

21%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

77%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

43%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

18%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

71%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

35%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

57%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

42%

level

26%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

32%

Washington Spirit W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Sanchez

North Carolina Courage W · F

7.2

Match Events

19'

A. Sanchez

45'

H. Hopkins← B. St-Georges

46'

K. Wiesner← C. Brown

63'

H. Stainbrook← P. Metayer

63'

M. Morris← G. Carle

64'

M. Speck← T. Lussi

64'

V. Pickett← B. Pinto

74'

B. Ratcliffe← O. Sarr

74'

A. Hatch← C. Bethune

89'

D. Weatherholt← A. Sanchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonNorth

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots3

2Corners2

1Fouls1

Shots

7Total Shots3

3On Target2

0Off Target1

4Blocked0

2Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

108Total Passes173

77Accurate Passes151

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

1Fouls1

1Offsides2