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Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
Preview
16:30
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
8/30/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageAudi Field
50%
Washington Spirit W
model favours
50%24%26%

Washington Spirit W score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Washington Spirit W50%
×Draw24%
Bay FC W26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Washington Spirit W
1.68
Bay FC W
1.14

Washington Spirit W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Washington Spirit W
1.88
Bay FC W
1.08

allows per match

Washington Spirit W
1.20
Bay FC W
1.48

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw
74%
Washington Spirit W or Bay FC W
76%
Draw or Bay FC W
50%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
27%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
81%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
50%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
24%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
68%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
32%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
66%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.88 + Bay FC W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bay FC W attack 1.08 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more
50%
level
24%
Bay FC W scores more
26%

Washington Spirit W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Washington Spirit W have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Washington Spirit W sit 2, Bay FC W 14 in the table
  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 2.2 expected)
  • Washington Spirit W outscore their xG (1.4 vs 0.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Washington Spirit W
Defensively solid
Bay FC W
Defensively solid
53%Possession48%
80%Pass accuracy78%
12.9Shots11.2
0.59xGBiggest gap2.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Washington Spirit WBay FC W

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

3
Washington Spirit W
0
Draws
0
Bay FC W
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 33%
2–03–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWWL
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Washington Spirit W host Bay FC W

August 30, 2026: Washington Spirit W take on Bay FC W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Washington Spirit W host Bay FC W at Audi Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.