Washington Spirit W 1–1 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

Washington Spirit W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bay FC W

C. Dydasco 96' (OG)

T. McKeown 86'

A. Oshoala 82'

11/10/2024

NWSL Women · Play-offs - Quarter-finalsAudi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Washington Spirit W51%

×Draw23%

Bay FC W26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Washington Spirit WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Washington Spirit W

1.78

Bay FC W

1.19

Washington Spirit W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Washington Spirit W

1.88

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

Washington Spirit W

1.20

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw

74%

Washington Spirit W or Bay FC W

77%

Draw or Bay FC W

49%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+

28%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals

83%

Washington Spirit W 2+ goals

53%

Washington Spirit W 3+ goals

26%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

70%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

33%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)

67%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.88 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more

51%

level

23%

Bay FC W scores more

26%

Washington Spirit W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. McKeown

Washington Spirit W · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

46'

52'

59'

73'

79'

K. Wiesner← H. Stainbrook

82'

A. Oshoala↳ P. Hocking

85'

P. Metayer← C. Krueger

85'

L. Silano← M. Morris

86'

T. McKeown

96'

C. DydascoOwn goal

99'

Kiki Pickett

101'

D. Castellanos← D. Bailey

105'

M. Moreau← E. Menges

119'

B. Ratcliffe← A. Hatch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WashingtonBay

Overview

54%Possession46%

21Total Shots13

4Corners8

8Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots13

6On Target2

9Off Target7

6Blocked4

12Inside Box8

9Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

571Total Passes492

444Accurate Passes346

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1