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Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
3/23/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 2Audi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Washington Spirit W48%
×Draw25%
Bay FC W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Washington Spirit W
1.60
Bay FC W
1.15

Washington Spirit W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

creates per match

Washington Spirit W
1.56
Bay FC W
1.18

allows per match

Washington Spirit W
1.13
Bay FC W
1.64

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw
73%
Washington Spirit W or Bay FC W
75%
Draw or Bay FC W
52%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
25%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
80%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
47%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
22%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
68%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
32%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
64%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Bay FC W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bay FC W attack 1.18 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more
48%
level
25%
Bay FC W scores more
27%

Washington Spirit W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Washington Spirit W vs Bay FC W

Washington Spirit W beat Bay FC W 2-1 in NWSL Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Audi Field in Washington, District of Columbia.