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Warta Sieradz vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
3/8/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Sieradz44%
×Draw26%
Stomil Olsztyn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.48
Stomil Olsztyn
1.19

Warta Sieradz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
70%
Warta Sieradz or Stomil Olsztyn
74%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
56%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
21%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
77%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
43%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
19%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
70%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
33%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
59%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
44%
level
26%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
30%

Warta Sieradz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Warta Sieradz 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Warta Sieradz beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.