Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Warta Sieradz vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
11/16/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Warta Sieradz48%
×Draw25%
Sokół Aleksandrów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.63
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.16

Warta Sieradz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
73%
Warta Sieradz or Sokół Aleksandrów
75%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
52%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
80%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
48%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
22%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
69%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
32%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
64%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
48%
level
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
27%

Warta Sieradz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Warta Sieradz 0–0 Sokół Aleksandrów

Warta Sieradz and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.