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Warta Sieradz vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
5/25/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Warta Sieradz50%
×Draw24%
Broń Radom26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.71
Broń Radom
1.18

Warta Sieradz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
74%
Warta Sieradz or Broń Radom
76%
Draw or Broń Radom
50%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
27%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
82%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
51%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
24%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
69%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
33%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
65%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
50%
level
24%
Broń Radom scores more
26%

Warta Sieradz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Warta Sieradz 2–0 Broń Radom

Warta Sieradz beat Broń Radom 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.