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Warta Sieradz vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
10/8/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Warta Sieradz44%
×Draw25%
Błonianka Błonie31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Sieradz
1.58
Błonianka Błonie
1.28

Warta Sieradz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Warta Sieradz
1.54
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Warta Sieradz
1.19
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Sieradz ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Warta Sieradz or draw
69%
Warta Sieradz or Błonianka Błonie
75%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
56%

Winning margin

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
22%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
79%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
47%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
21%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
72%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
37%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
59%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Sieradz at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Sieradz attack 1.54 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Warta Sieradz scores more
44%
level
25%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
31%

Warta Sieradz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Warta Sieradz 0–1 Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Warta Sieradz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Sieradz.