Warta Poznań vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Warta Poznań

CANC

13:00

Zagłębie Lubin II

2/8/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Warta Poznań53%

×Draw22%

Zagłębie Lubin II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.33

Warta Poznań

2.00

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.33

Warta Poznań creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

1.83

0.83

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.67

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.83

allows per match

Warta Poznań

0.83

Zagłębie Lubin II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

75%

Warta Poznań or Zagłębie Lubin II

78%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

47%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

31%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

86%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

59%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

32%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

74%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

38%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

68%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.67 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.83 + Warta Poznań defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

53%

level

22%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

25%

Warta Poznań at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff