Warta Poznań 2–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

9/5/2018

I Liga · Round 5Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Poznań40%

×Draw25%

Bytovia Bytów35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.36

Warta Poznań

1.48

Bytovia Bytów

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.19

creates per match

1.47

1.25

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.19

Bytovia Bytów

1.47

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.25

Bytovia Bytów

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

65%

Warta Poznań or Bytovia Bytów

75%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

60%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

19%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

77%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

43%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

19%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

74%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

39%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

54%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.19 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Warta Poznań defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

40%

level

25%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

35%

Warta Poznań at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff