Warta Poznań U19 3–1 Widzew Łódź U19

Warta Poznań U19

FT

3 – 1

Widzew Łódź U19

4/6/2024

Central Youth League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Warta Poznań U1957%

×Draw19%

Widzew Łódź U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta Poznań U19Expected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.57

Warta Poznań U19

2.45

Widzew Łódź U19

1.57

Warta Poznań U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.03

creates per match

1.27

1.87

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19

2.03

Widzew Łódź U19

1.27

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19

1.87

Widzew Łódź U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Widzew Łódź U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw

76%

Warta Poznań U19 or Widzew Łódź U19

81%

Draw or Widzew Łódź U19

43%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+

36%

Widzew Łódź U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals

91%

Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals

70%

Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals

44%

Widzew Łódź U19 1+ goals

79%

Widzew Łódź U19 2+ goals

46%

Widzew Łódź U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Widzew Łódź U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Widzew Łódź U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Widzew Łódź U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.45

Widzew Łódź U19 attack 1.27 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Widzew Łódź U19 scores more

24%

Warta Poznań U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Warta Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff