Warta Poznań U19 5–2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Warta Poznań U19

FT

5 – 2

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

4/20/2024

Central Youth League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Warta Poznań U1961%

×Draw18%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta Poznań U19Expected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.50

Warta Poznań U19

2.65

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.50

Warta Poznań U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.03

creates per match

1.13

1.87

allows per match

3.27

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19

2.03

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

1.13

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19

1.87

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

3.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw

79%

Warta Poznań U19 or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

82%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19

39%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+

41%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals

93%

Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals

74%

Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals

48%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 1+ goals

78%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 2+ goals

44%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.65

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 attack 1.13 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz U19 scores more

21%

Warta Poznań U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Warta Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff