Warta Poznań U19 0–2 Escola Varsovia U19

Warta Poznań U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Escola Varsovia U19

9/28/2024

Central Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Warta Poznań U1945%

×Draw22%

Escola Varsovia U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta Poznań U19Expected goals in this matchEscola Varsovia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.70

Warta Poznań U19

1.99

Escola Varsovia U19

1.70

Warta Poznań U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

2.03

creates per match

1.53

1.87

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19

2.03

Escola Varsovia U19

1.53

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19

1.87

Escola Varsovia U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Escola Varsovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Escola Varsovia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw

66%

Warta Poznań U19 or Escola Varsovia U19

78%

Draw or Escola Varsovia U19

55%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+

25%

Escola Varsovia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals

86%

Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals

59%

Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals

32%

Escola Varsovia U19 1+ goals

82%

Escola Varsovia U19 2+ goals

51%

Escola Varsovia U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Escola Varsovia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Escola Varsovia U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Escola Varsovia U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.99

Escola Varsovia U19 attack 1.53 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Escola Varsovia U19 scores more

34%

Warta Poznań U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Warta Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff