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Warta Poznań U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
FT
1 – 3
Arka Gdynia U19
Arka Gdynia U19
9/30/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Warta Poznań U1947%
×Draw21%
Arka Gdynia U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań U19
2.04
Arka Gdynia U19
1.67

Warta Poznań U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19
2.03
Arka Gdynia U19
1.46

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19
1.87
Arka Gdynia U19
2.05

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Arka Gdynia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw
68%
Warta Poznań U19 or Arka Gdynia U19
79%
Draw or Arka Gdynia U19
53%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
26%
Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
87%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
60%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
33%
Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals
81%
Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals
50%
Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Arka Gdynia U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.04

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 1.46 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Arka Gdynia U19 scores more
32%

Warta Poznań U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Warta Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Warta Poznań U19 1–3 Arka Gdynia U19

Arka Gdynia U19 beat Warta Poznań U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on September 30, 2023.