Warta Gorzów 0–2 Goczałkowice Zdrój: Result & Stats

Warta Gorzów

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Goczałkowice Zdrój

4/18/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Warta Gorzów38%

×Draw26%

Goczałkowice Zdrój36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta GorzówExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.31

Warta Gorzów

1.37

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.41

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Warta Gorzów

1.36

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.22

allows per match

Warta Gorzów

1.41

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw

64%

Warta Gorzów or Goczałkowice Zdrój

74%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

62%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

18%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

75%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

40%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

16%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

73%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

38%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

52%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more

38%

level

26%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

36%

Warta Gorzów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff