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Warta Gorzów vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
1 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
3/27/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Warta Gorzów55%
×Draw22%
Gać Oława23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.96
Gać Oława
1.21

Warta Gorzów creates 62% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
77%
Warta Gorzów or Gać Oława
78%
Draw or Gać Oława
45%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
32%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
86%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
58%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
31%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
70%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
34%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
70%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
55%
level
22%
Gać Oława scores more
23%

Warta Gorzów at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Warta Gorzów 1–0 Gać Oława

Warta Gorzów beat Gać Oława 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.