Warriors 1–1 Tampines Rovers: Result & Stats

Warriors

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tampines Rovers

4/24/2019

Premier League · Round 4Jurong East Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Warriors30%

×Draw22%

Tampines Rovers48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WarriorsExpected goals in this matchTampines Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.98

Warriors

1.54

Tampines Rovers

1.98

Tampines Rovers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 85 away

1.58

creates per match

2.20

1.75

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Warriors

1.58

Tampines Rovers

2.20

allows per match

Warriors

1.75

Tampines Rovers

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Tampines Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Warriors or draw

52%

Warriors or Tampines Rovers

78%

Draw or Tampines Rovers

70%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+

14%

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals

79%

Warriors 2+ goals

45%

Warriors 3+ goals

20%

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

59%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)

39%

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.58 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tampines Rovers attack 2.20 + Warriors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Warriors scores more

30%

level

22%

Tampines Rovers scores more

48%

Tampines Rovers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff