Warriors 1–2 Geylang International: Result & Stats

Warriors

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Geylang International

6/23/2019

Premier League · Round 6Jurong East Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Warriors38%

×Draw22%

Geylang International39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WarriorsExpected goals in this matchGeylang International

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.77

Warriors

1.75

Geylang International

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 81 away

1.58

creates per match

1.78

1.75

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Warriors

1.58

Geylang International

1.78

allows per match

Warriors

1.75

Geylang International

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par

Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Geylang International →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Warriors or draw

61%

Warriors or Geylang International

78%

Draw or Geylang International

62%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+

20%

Geylang International wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals

83%

Warriors 2+ goals

52%

Warriors 3+ goals

25%

Geylang International 1+ goals

83%

Geylang International 2+ goals

53%

Geylang International 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)

49%

Geylang International (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.58 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Warriors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warriors scores more

38%

level

22%

Geylang International scores more

39%

Geylang International at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Geylang International will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff