Warriors 2–1 Elite United: Result & Stats

Warriors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elite United

Unknown 75', 30'

Unknown 16'

1/13/2022

GFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Warriors32%

×Draw31%

Elite United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WarriorsExpected goals in this matchElite United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.06

Warriors

0.95

Elite United

1.06

Elite United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 28 away

1.01

creates per match

1.04

1.09

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Warriors

1.01

Elite United

1.04

allows per match

Warriors

1.09

Elite United

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par

Elite United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Elite United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Warriors or draw

62%

Warriors or Elite United

69%

Draw or Elite United

68%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+

11%

Elite United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals

61%

Warriors 2+ goals

25%

Warriors 3+ goals

7%

Elite United 1+ goals

65%

Elite United 2+ goals

29%

Elite United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)

46%

Elite United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 74 matches

Elite United away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.01 + Elite United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Elite United attack 1.04 + Warriors defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Warriors scores more

32%

level

31%

Elite United scores more

38%

Elite United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Elite United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

30'

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff