Warriors 4–1 Bombada: Result & Stats | GFA League

Warriors

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bombada

Unknown 68', 61', 41', 10'

Unknown 52'

1/26/2024

GFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Warriors39%

×Draw29%

Bombada31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WarriorsExpected goals in this matchBombada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Warriors

1.15

Bombada

0.99

Warriors creates 16% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 45 away

1.01

creates per match

0.89

1.09

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Warriors

1.01

Bombada

0.89

allows per match

Warriors

1.09

Bombada

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par

Bombada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Bombada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Warriors or draw

69%

Warriors or Bombada

71%

Draw or Bombada

61%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+

16%

Bombada wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals

68%

Warriors 2+ goals

32%

Warriors 3+ goals

11%

Bombada 1+ goals

63%

Bombada 2+ goals

26%

Bombada 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)

56%

Bombada (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 74 matches

Bombada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.01 + Bombada defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bombada attack 0.89 + Warriors defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warriors scores more

39%

level

29%

Bombada scores more

31%

Warriors at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

41'

52'

61'

68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff