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Warriors vs Albirex Niigata S — Premier League 2019

Warriors
Warriors
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Albirex Niigata S
Albirex Niigata S
4/13/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Jurong East Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Warriors30%
×Draw22%
Albirex Niigata S48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warriors
1.54
Albirex Niigata S
1.98

Albirex Niigata S creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 82 away

creates per match

Warriors
1.58
Albirex Niigata S
2.20

allows per match

Warriors
1.75
Albirex Niigata S
1.51

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Albirex Niigata S →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Warriors or draw
52%
Warriors or Albirex Niigata S
78%
Draw or Albirex Niigata S
70%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+
14%
Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals
79%
Warriors 2+ goals
45%
Warriors 3+ goals
20%
Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals
86%
Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals
59%
Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)
39%
Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.58 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Warriors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Warriors scores more
30%
level
22%
Albirex Niigata S scores more
48%

Albirex Niigata S at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warriors vs Albirex Niigata S

Albirex Niigata S beat Warriors 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Jurong East Stadium (Singapore).