Warrior 1–6 Poseidon: Result & Stats | Cup

Warrior

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

Poseidon

D. Barylo 21'

J. Einfeldt 78', 61', 10'

H. Sireli 69', 60'

A. Klein 57'

7/26/2023

Cup · Round of 64Valga Keskstaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Warrior9%

×Draw11%

Poseidon80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WarriorExpected goals in this matchPoseidon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

4.27

Warrior

1.53

Poseidon

4.27

Poseidon creates 179% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

3.20

5.33

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Warrior

0.67

Poseidon

3.20

allows per match

Warrior

5.33

Poseidon

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warrior+0.00on par

Poseidon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warrior ↓

Poseidon →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Warrior or draw

20%

Warrior or Poseidon

89%

Draw or Poseidon

91%

Winning margin

Warrior wins by 2+

Poseidon wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Warrior 1+ goals

78%

Warrior 2+ goals

45%

Warrior 3+ goals

20%

Poseidon 1+ goals

98%

Poseidon 2+ goals

91%

Poseidon 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Warrior (draw refunded)

10%

Poseidon (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Warrior at home — creates 0.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Poseidon away — creates 3.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Warrior attack 0.67 + Poseidon defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Poseidon attack 3.20 + Warrior defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Warrior scores more

level

11%

Poseidon scores more

80%

Poseidon at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Poseidon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

21'

57'

60'

61'

69'

78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff