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Warrior vs Kristiine JK — Cup 2026

Warrior
Warrior
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kristiine JK
Kristiine JKadvanced
R. Rajevski 81' (pen)
T. Leppik 77'
K. Arge 62', 43'
H. Talviste 47'
7/24/2021CupCup · Round of 64Valga Kungla kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Warrior21%
×Draw15%
Kristiine JK64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warrior
2.14
Kristiine JK
3.67

Kristiine JK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Warrior
0.67
Kristiine JK
2.00

allows per match

Warrior
5.33
Kristiine JK
3.60

finishing

Warrior+0.00on par
Kristiine JK+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warrior ↓

Kristiine JK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Warrior or draw
36%
Warrior or Kristiine JK
85%
Draw or Kristiine JK
79%

Winning margin

Warrior wins by 2+
10%
Kristiine JK wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Warrior 1+ goals
88%
Warrior 2+ goals
63%
Warrior 3+ goals
36%
Kristiine JK 1+ goals
97%
Kristiine JK 2+ goals
87%
Kristiine JK 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Warrior (draw refunded)
24%
Kristiine JK (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warrior at home — creates 0.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Kristiine JK away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warrior attack 0.67 + Kristiine JK defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.14

Kristiine JK attack 2.00 + Warrior defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Warrior scores more
21%
level
15%
Kristiine JK scores more
64%

Kristiine JK at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kristiine JK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
K. Arge
47'
H. Talviste
62'
K. Arge
77'
T. Leppik
81'
R. RajevskiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Warrior 1–4 Kristiine JK

Kristiine JK beat Warrior 4-1 in Cup on July 24, 2021.

Goals: K. Arge (43', 62'), H. Talviste (47'), T. Leppik (77'), R. Rajevski (81' pen).

The match was played at Valga Kungla kunstmuru in Valga.