Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Warri Wolves vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
FT
3 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
M. Daniel 90'
M. Okoyoh 44'
S. Williams 19'
3/1/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 22Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Warri Wolves56%
×Draw30%
Sunshine Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.28
Sunshine Stars
0.49

Warri Wolves creates 161% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.12
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.51
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
86%
Warri Wolves or Sunshine Stars
70%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
44%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
27%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
72%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
37%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
14%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
39%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
9%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
80%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.51 · 49 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.12 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Warri Wolves defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
56%
level
30%
Sunshine Stars scores more
14%

Warri Wolves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Alimi
19'
S. Williams
24'
O. Abe Sunday
37'
O. Abe Sunday
37'
O. Abe Sunday
40'
W. Jimoh← W. Jimoh
44'
M. Okoyoh
48'
T. Akande← T. Akande
73'
E. Yarhere← E. Yarhere
74'
D. Mayor← D. Mayor
78'
O. Ayo
80'
K. Adeniji← K. Adeniji
85'
R. Agbabiaka← R. Agbabiaka
85'
90'
M. Daniel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Warri Wolves 3–0 Sunshine Stars

Warri Wolves beat Sunshine Stars 3-0 in NPFL on March 1, 2020.

Goals: S. Williams (19'), M. Okoyoh (44'), M. Daniel (90').

The match was played at Warri Township Stadium in Warri.