Warri Wolves 1–0 Remo Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Warri Wolves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Remo Stars

1/29/2026

NPFL · Round 23Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Warri Wolves52%

×Draw29%

Remo Stars19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warri WolvesExpected goals in this matchRemo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.65

Warri Wolves

1.28

Remo Stars

0.65

Warri Wolves creates 97% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 99 away

1.12

creates per match

0.78

0.51

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Warri Wolves

1.12

Remo Stars

0.78

allows per match

Warri Wolves

0.51

Remo Stars

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Remo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw

81%

Warri Wolves or Remo Stars

71%

Draw or Remo Stars

48%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

24%

Remo Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

72%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

37%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

14%

Remo Stars 1+ goals

48%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

14%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

73%

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.51 · 49 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.12 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Warri Wolves defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Warri Wolves scores more

52%

level

29%

Remo Stars scores more

19%

Warri Wolves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff