Warri Wolves 1–0 Plateau United: Result & Stats

Warri Wolves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Plateau United

2/3/2021

NPFL · Round 8Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Warri Wolves53%

×Draw30%

Plateau United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warri WolvesExpected goals in this matchPlateau United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.58

Warri Wolves

1.25

Plateau United

0.58

Warri Wolves creates 116% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 127 away

1.12

creates per match

0.65

0.51

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Warri Wolves

1.12

Plateau United

0.65

allows per match

Warri Wolves

0.51

Plateau United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Plateau United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw

83%

Warri Wolves or Plateau United

70%

Draw or Plateau United

47%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

25%

Plateau United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

71%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

36%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

13%

Plateau United 1+ goals

44%

Plateau United 2+ goals

12%

Plateau United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

75%

Plateau United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.51 · 49 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.12 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Warri Wolves defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Warri Wolves scores more

53%

level

30%

Plateau United scores more

17%

Warri Wolves at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff