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Warri Wolves vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
CANC
00:00
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
4/22/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 32Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Warri Wolves55%
×Draw28%
Kano Pillars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.34
Kano Pillars
0.58

Warri Wolves creates 131% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 121 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.14
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.53
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
84%
Warri Wolves or Kano Pillars
72%
Draw or Kano Pillars
45%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
27%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
15%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
44%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
12%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
77%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.53 · 51 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.14 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Warri Wolves defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
55%
level
28%
Kano Pillars scores more
16%

Warri Wolves at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Warri Wolves vs Kano Pillars — Match Preview

Warri Wolves face Kano Pillars on April 22, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Warri Wolves host Kano Pillars at Warri Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.