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Warri Wolves vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
3/17/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 16Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Warri Wolves62%
×Draw25%
Jigawa Golden Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.54
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.53

Warri Wolves creates 191% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.12
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.51
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
87%
Warri Wolves or Jigawa Golden Stars
75%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
38%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
34%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
79%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
45%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
20%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
41%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
10%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
83%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.51 · 49 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.12 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Warri Wolves defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
62%
level
25%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
13%

Warri Wolves at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Warri Wolves 0–0 Jigawa Golden Stars

Warri Wolves and Jigawa Golden Stars drew 0-0 in NPFL on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Warri Township Stadium in Warri.