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Warri Wolves vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
FT
2 – 2
Heartland
Heartland
6/8/2016NPFLNPFL · Round 21Warri Township Stadium (Warri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Warri Wolves56%
×Draw29%
Heartland15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.33
Heartland
0.54

Warri Wolves creates 146% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 101 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.14
Heartland
0.54

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.54
Heartland
1.52

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
85%
Warri Wolves or Heartland
71%
Draw or Heartland
44%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
27%
Heartland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
38%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
15%
Heartland 1+ goals
42%
Heartland 2+ goals
10%
Heartland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
79%
Heartland (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.54 · 50 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.52 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.14 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Heartland attack 0.54 + Warri Wolves defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
56%
level
29%
Heartland scores more
15%

Warri Wolves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warri Wolves vs Heartland

Warri Wolves and Heartland drew 2-2 in NPFL on June 8, 2016.

The match was played at Warri Township Stadium (Warri).