Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Warri Wolves vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
FT
3 – 1
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
5/22/2016NPFLNPFL · Round 19Warri Township Stadium (Warri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Warri Wolves63%
×Draw26%
El Kanemi Warriors12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.51
El Kanemi Warriors
0.48

Warri Wolves creates 215% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 65 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.20
El Kanemi Warriors
0.42

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.54
El Kanemi Warriors
1.82

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
88%
Warri Wolves or El Kanemi Warriors
74%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
37%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
34%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
78%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
44%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
19%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
38%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
8%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
84%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.54 · 54 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.20 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.42 + Warri Wolves defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
63%
level
26%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
12%

Warri Wolves at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Warri Wolves 3–1 El Kanemi Warriors

Warri Wolves beat El Kanemi Warriors 3-1 in NPFL on May 22, 2016.

The match was played at Warri Township Stadium (Warri).