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Warri Wolves vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
6/13/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 27Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Warri Wolves58%
×Draw28%
Akwa Starlets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warri Wolves
1.36
Akwa Starlets
0.52

Warri Wolves creates 162% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 60 away

creates per match

Warri Wolves
1.12
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Warri Wolves
0.51
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw
86%
Warri Wolves or Akwa Starlets
72%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
42%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+
29%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
16%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
41%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
10%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
80%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.51 · 49 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.12 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Warri Wolves defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Warri Wolves scores more
58%
level
28%
Akwa Starlets scores more
14%

Warri Wolves at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warri Wolves vs Akwa Starlets

Akwa Starlets beat Warri Wolves 1-0 in NPFL on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Warri Township Stadium in Warri.