Warri Wolves 1–0 Adamawa United: Result & Stats

Warri Wolves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adamawa United

J. Ihuarulam 83'

1/3/2021

NPFL · Round 2Warri Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Warri Wolves71%

×Draw21%

Adamawa United8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warri WolvesExpected goals in this matchAdamawa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.39

Warri Wolves

1.76

Adamawa United

0.39

Warri Wolves creates 351% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

1.17

creates per match

0.23

0.54

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Warri Wolves

1.17

Adamawa United

0.23

allows per match

Warri Wolves

0.54

Adamawa United

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Adamawa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw

92%

Warri Wolves or Adamawa United

79%

Draw or Adamawa United

29%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

43%

Adamawa United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

83%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

52%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

26%

Adamawa United 1+ goals

32%

Adamawa United 2+ goals

6%

Adamawa United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

90%

Adamawa United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.54 · 52 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.17 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.76

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Warri Wolves defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Warri Wolves scores more

71%

level

21%

Adamawa United scores more

8%

Warri Wolves at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

A. Mbai

83'

J. Ihuarulam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff