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Wanderers vs Racing Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Wanderers
Wanderers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
4/12/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Wanderers39%
×Draw28%
Racing Montevideo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wanderers
1.21
Racing Montevideo
1.06

Wanderers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 56 away

creates per match

Wanderers
1.03
Racing Montevideo
1.18

allows per match

Wanderers
0.95
Racing Montevideo
1.38

finishing

Wanderers+0.00on par
Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wanderers ↓

Racing Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wanderers or draw
68%
Wanderers or Racing Montevideo
72%
Draw or Racing Montevideo
61%

Winning margin

Wanderers wins by 2+
17%
Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wanderers 1+ goals
70%
Wanderers 2+ goals
34%
Wanderers 3+ goals
12%
Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
65%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
29%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wanderers (draw refunded)
55%
Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wanderers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wanderers attack 1.03 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Racing Montevideo attack 1.18 + Wanderers defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wanderers scores more
39%
level
28%
Racing Montevideo scores more
32%

Wanderers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wanderers vs Racing Montevideo

Racing Montevideo beat Wanderers 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera in Montevideo.